Evaluation of ECMWF HRES-IFS and CAMS-IFS Intra- and Day-Ahead Forecasts with Respect to Surface Solar Irradiances - Mines Paris Accéder directement au contenu
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2023

Evaluation of ECMWF HRES-IFS and CAMS-IFS Intra- and Day-Ahead Forecasts with Respect to Surface Solar Irradiances

Résumé

The main focus of the CAMS Radiation Service is to provide high-quality long-term historical irradiance data which is easily integrated in solar resource assessments and other related studies. At the same time, the CAMS system provides a forecast of atmospheric composition, that is, aerosols, water vapor and ozone. As part of its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), ECMWF generates an alternative forecast which uses additional modules based on the atmospheric composition forecasted by CAMS, which we name the CAMS IFS forecast (Inness et al., 2015). It is an overarching question, how the CAMS IFS radiation forecast compares to the operational ECMWF HRES IFS forecast and whether it could be implemented as an operational product on itself. The CAMS IFS forecast is operated on a low spatial resolution of 40 km (~ 3.5°). This is coarse compared to the 9 km (~0.1°) spatial resolution of the operational HRES IFS, but the CAMS IFS forecasts are based on additional aerosol forecasts as provided by CAMS - while the operational HRES IFS runs use an aerosol climatology (Bozzo et al., 2017). The present evaluation is done for the full year 2021 on a global scale using ground observations from well-known research quality solar radiation measurement networks (BSRN, SOLRAD, SURFRAD, enerMENA, NREL-MIDC). Following solar energy stakeholders needs, this evaluation will be concentrated on the intraday and day-ahead range, that is, the evaluation will use the forecasts up to 48 hours. The forecasts are obtained from the run at 0:00 UTC which ensures that the forecasts are available for all intraday and day ahead market transactions and operational processes of energy system stakeholders. Both forecast sources have a native time resolution of 1 hour in their public accessible output, therefore, the evaluation is also performed on an hourly resolution basis.
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Dates et versions

hal-04379213 , version 1 (08-01-2024)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04379213 , version 1

Citer

Jorge Lezaca, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan. Evaluation of ECMWF HRES-IFS and CAMS-IFS Intra- and Day-Ahead Forecasts with Respect to Surface Solar Irradiances. EU PVSEC 2023 (41st European Photovoltaïc Solar Energy Conference), Sep 2023, Lisboa, Portugal. ⟨hal-04379213⟩
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