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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2012

Assessment Of Short-Term Wind Power Predictability In India

Raphael Jolivet
Alexis Bocquet
Georges Kariniotakis
Alok Kumar Jindal
  • Fonction : Auteur
Ankit Narula
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sudhakar Sundaray
  • Fonction : Auteur


Introduction: India is one of the largest wind power markets in the world with 13,065 MW installed capacity by 2010. The potential estimations (C-WET, WISE) are between 49-100 GW. To increase the penetration of renewable energy sources into the regional grids the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) formulated grid standards for renewables and adapted the grid code. The new grid code requires that new wind farms above 10 MW provide short-term forecasts of their production to the system operator. This paper presents results of the adaptation and evaluation of short-term forecasting models for wind farms in India. The analysis highlights the impact of the special climatic conditions. Approach: The Indian Electricity Grid Code (IEGC), adopted in May 2010 IEGC 2010, made forecasting and scheduling mandatory for wind and solar power generators with effect from January 2012. It is recognized that accurate forecasting is critical to managing wind power's variability [Indian Wind Energy Outlook 2011 by GWEC]. Each new wind power developer has to make arrangements for a data acquisition system facility for transfer of information to grid operators. Daily generation schedules and revised schedules based on forecasts can be communicated to the grid operator through this arrangement. At this stage however there is no practical experience on what are the levels of predictability for the particular climatic conditions in India. This paper contributes to that direction with quantitative results based on real-world data coming from large wind farms in India. Main body of abstract: First, this paper provides an overview of the current situation of wind power in India including the policies and strategies of the governments for developing and integrating wind energy in the grid. The technical challenges of the grid integration of wind energy are analyzed and the role and benefits of forecasting are highlighted. Then, sets of power production data, wind measurements as well as weather numerical predictions (incl. GFS, ECMWF etc) covering a long period are analyzed and characterized. This analysis reveals characteristics that depend on the specific Indian climatic conditions that are not observed in Europe. It includes analysis of extreme events (ie cut-offs, ramps). Based on the available data, short-term forecasts of the power production were generated. State-of-the-art probabilistic approaches were used in order to obtain the whole distribution of wind production for each prediction horizon. The results are analyzed based on standard criteria for spot forecasts as well as on criteria appropriate for probabilistic predictions (i.e. reliability, sharpness etc). They are compared to typical results obtained for wind farms in Europe. In the frame of the European project SafeWind (FP7) a demonstration case was set-up, where predictions are generated operationally for the considered wind farms in India. The paper presents results from the evaluation of the operational forecasts and analyses feedback by the end-users. This consist probably one of the first operational experiences of wind power forecasting in India. Conclusion: The paper concludes with a critical discussion on the results. Their assessment with respect to the new grid code requirements for wind power forecasts is of high interest. The paper concludes with recommendations for the implementation of operational wind power forecasting schemes in India as well as for future R&D for the improvement of wind predictability in the country


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Dates et versions

hal-00812432 , version 1 (12-04-2013)


  • HAL Id : hal-00812432 , version 1


Shankar Kumar, Raphael Jolivet, Alexis Bocquet, Nils Siebert, Georges Kariniotakis, et al.. Assessment Of Short-Term Wind Power Predictability In India. Annual EWEA 2012 Conference, Apr 2012, Copenhagen, Denmark. 1 page - Oral presentation. ⟨hal-00812432⟩
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